@Article{AlmeidaFranCamp:2020:ShFoSy,
author = "Almeida, Vin{\'{\i}}cius Albuquerque de and Franca, Gutembert
Borges and Campos Velho, Haroldo Fraga de",
affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Universidade
Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Short-range forecasting system for meteorological convective
events in Rio de Janeiro using remote sensing of atmospheric
discharges",
journal = "International Journal of Remote Sensing",
year = "2020",
volume = "41",
number = "11",
pages = "4372--4388",
month = "jun.",
abstract = "In this study, a method is presented for meteorological convective
event forecasting at the terminal control area of the Galeao
International Airport, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, using machine
learning, sounding and remotely sensed atmospheric discharge data
from 2001 to 2016. A monthly and daily climatology were computed
for the atmospheric discharge temporal distribution in the study
area. Six machine learning models were trained and cross-validated
for 10 years (2001-2010), and a test was produced for 6 years
(2011-2016). The results showed that the deep learning
fully-connected (dense) algorithm achieved the best results for
storm forecast and severity based on the following statistics:
probability of detection (0.91 and 0.85), BIAS (1.03 and 1.07),
false-alarm ratio (0.12 and 0.20) and CSI (0.81 and 0.69),
respectively. The 6-year test analysis showed that the model has
increasing performance for high-impact events, and this
performance decreases gradually as the events become weaker and
more frequent. The models presented here could be useful tools for
air traffic management purposes.",
doi = "10.1080/01431161.2020.1717669",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2020.1717669",
issn = "0143-1161",
language = "en",
targetfile = "Short range forecasting system for meteorological convective
events in Rio de Janeiro using remote sensing of atmospheric
discharges.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}